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AS LIVERPOOL BREAK'S RECORD,SPURS ABOVE ARSENAL, AND WESTHAM SURVIVE OPTA SIMULATION.

Posted by on April 7, 2020 0


 

AS LIVERPOOL BREAK’S RECORD,SPURS ABOVE ARSENAL, AND WESTHAM SURVIVE OPTA SIMULATION.

»The Premier League season remains suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic and we still don’t know when it will start again.
All professional football in England is postpond until at least may and, following the latest meeting of top-flight clubs last week, there remains no set date for its return.

The Premier League table as things stand, with no football played since March
The Premier League table as things stand, with no football played since March

Euro 2020 has been delayed by 12 months to allow domestic competitions to be completed, and clubs remain determined to finish the 2019/20 campaign – however long it takes.
The premier league stopped with Liverpool agonisingly close to winning their first league title in 30 years.

They need just two wins from their final nine games of the season, which seems certain seeing as they have won 27 of their 29 games so far, losing just once.
It’s at the foot of the table where things are tight with Norwich, Aston Villa and Bournemouth in the relegation zone with Watford, west ham and Brighton all also in the fight to avoid the drop.

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talkSPORT host Alan Brazil gives Premier League stars a reality check during coronavirus lockdown

Opta have now crunched the numbers to simulate how the rest of the season could pan out.
To do this they have:

  • An estimation of each match outcome based off each team’s attacking and defensive quality
  • Those qualities are based on four years of historic restyle but more weighting is given to more recent games
  • It also takes into account the quality of opposition that a team scores or concedes against and rewards them accordingly
  • They used goal predictions from the Poisson distribution with the two teams’ attacking and defending qualities as inputs
  • The simulation was run 10,000 times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position

The results, unsurprisingly, showed that Liverpool  clinched the title – and did so in record-breaking style.
According to Opta’s simulation, Jurgen Klopp’s Reds would go on to claim 101 points – breaking the record for most points in a Premier League season set by Manchester City in 2017/18.

Liverpool were rampaging their way to the title before the coronavirus outbreak halted the Premier League
Liverpool were rampaging their way to the title before the coronavirus outbreak halted the Premier League

Man City would finish second on 80 points, a tally that would have been enough to win the title on six different occasions.
The top four was rounded off by Leicester and Chelsea, with 67 and 63 points respectively, so no change from the table now then.
Manchester United, who have been rejuvenated since Bruno Fernandes joined in January, finished just outside the Champions League qualification spots in fifth.
Arsenal, meanwhile, finished eighth in the simulated table, behind north London rivals Tottenham, as well as Wolves.
At the foot of the table, the three currently at the bottom – Norwich, Aston Villa and Bournemouth – were all relegated.
Watford (36), Brighton (37) and West Ham (39) all managed to survive without reaching the 40 point benchmark.
It will be interesting to see how accurate this predicted table turns out to be when – or if – the Premier League eventually resumes.

Opta’s simulation on how the Premier League season will finish
Opta’s simulation on how the Premier League season will finish

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